AST SpaceMobile 2030 Valuation Model Beta
This model doesn't take into consideration "how we get there", only about what's the most likely outcome for 2030.
Deutsche Bank scenario, AST Management scenario and Barclays EV/NOPAT scenario are all based on 2024 numbers. In our opinion, this is too short-term oriented.
EV/EBITDA Multiple
Projected Subscribers **
The number of subscribers is an elegant way of expressing your outlook on satellite deployment speed and potential technological challenges. Slower satellite deployment and/or technological challenges translate into less subscribers; faster satellite deployment and/or tech breakthroughs potentially translate into more subscribers.
Competitive pressure is adjusted in the next item. Please set the projected number of subscribers based on the assumption that there will be no competition, which was also presumably the assumption of AST Management in 2020 when giving their original estimates in the NPA SPAC presentation (p. 31).
Regulatory slow-down is adjusted in the next item. Please select the number of subscribers here without any concern for regulators potentially preventing some subscribers from accessing the service.
Competitive Pressure
We introduced this parameter to our model in order to account for any competition which was unexpected in 2020 (such as Starlink + T-Mobile) when AST Management was giving their original subscriber projections in the NPA SPAC presentation (p. 31).
This percentage simply reduces the projected number of subscribers to arrive at the final number of net subscribers AST is expected to have in 2030.
In our opinion, those following AST need to watch market developments closely and adjust this item based on market developments.
Regulatory Blockage
Expresses what % of projected subscribers won't be accessible to AST due to regulatory hurdles.
The regulatory hurdle you chose, if any, will simply reduce the subscriber count accordingly.
Revenue Per Subscriber
OPEX (Operating Expenses)
Used for calculating EBITDA from Revenue and for calculating profit margin.
Net Debt/Cash by 2030
The debt expresses your outlook on overall costs and profitability. High debt means that bringing the network online was more expensive than expected and/or that AST didn't generate a lot of cash to repay it with. High net cash means that AST successfully managed to generate a lot of profits.
Debt or cash balances affect the enterprise value and equity value (market cap), thus it has an effect on the final share price.
Shares Outstanding
Risk of Total Failure
The AST project could fail if AST can't make the technology work at at scale, or loses all of its key mobile network operator relationships absolutely necessary for its success (AST is leasing the mobile spectrum from them).
This doesn't reflect potential regulatory blockades / obstructions, which are reflected in a separate item.
The risk of total ruin probabilistically discounts the final target price accordingly. For example, a 10% risk of ruin will reduce the final target price by 10%.
Discount Rate
Discount Rate (also called Hurdle Rate) means how much you value future money and how much you want to be compensated for the risk you take.
Years of discounting remaining till end of 2030: ...
Entry Stock Price
Set your $ASTS entry stock price, or use the last closing market price for calculating the valuation.
2030 $ASTS SpaceMobile stock prediction: